July 20, 2026

Coastal Flood Resilience News

Twice a month, CFRP recaps the latest science, federal policy, and state and local news related to coastal flood resilience and sea level rise. Prior issues can be viewed on our website.

Science

AMOC Collapse Probabilities Estimated

This new study, still in peer review, provides new estimates for a “committed collapse” of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC):

The IPCC sixth assessment report characterized AMOC change primarily through projections of weakening strength, concluding that AMOC is likely to decline by 24–39% by 2100 under moderate-to-high emissions (central estimates), a figure recently revised upward to ~50%. However, this may obscure the risk that AMOC poses, which is an irreversible state transition on human timescales, with abrupt consequences for European temperatures, tropical monsoon systems, and sea level along the eastern North American seaboard, with changes happening at rates that would be highly challenging for adaptation.

We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. Under conservative assumptions of Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to 80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. Under less conservative Greenland melt assumptions, probability that collapse is already committed is 23%.

Thwaites Glacier Research Cites High Loss Rates

A March 2026 paper published in AGU’s Geophysical Research Letters points to findings of new models of ice loss from the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica:

These models predict that by 2067, Thwaites could be losing 180–200 billion tons of ice per year—roughly equal to all the ice Antarctica loses today. The models show ice thinning spreading far inland along a deep valley beneath the glacier, potentially triggering runaway losses.

This YouTube video puts the new research findings into a larger context.

VIMS Issues Living Shoreline Guide

The Virginia Institute for Marine Science (VIMS) has published a new guide offering a science-based, process-oriented framework for evaluating whether a shoreline project functions as a living shoreline in practice, noting:

The central premise of this paper is that living shorelines should be defined by function rather than materials. To qualify, a project must use natural shoreline habitat as the basis for erosion control, provide water quality benefits, maintain land–water connectivity, and support the physical, chemical, and biological processes that sustain coastal systems over time. No single feature or material is sufficient on its own.

Federal Policy

FEMA Staff Assigned to Immigration Enforcement

A new report from the Democratic staff of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee describes how FEMA staff have been reassigned to work on immigration enforcement matters, concluding: “FEMA personnel were directed to perform functions, including operational planning for arrests, raids and patrols; processing and logistics for detained noncitizens; recruiting and onboarding ICE officers; and day-to-day management of immigration detention facilities.”

The report concludes with eight recommendations, including:

…recalling all FEMA personnel from immigration enforcement details, resuming FEMA hiring and training programs, strengthening congressional oversight of the disaster declaration process, establishing FEMA as an independent agency and amending the Post-Katrina Emergency Management Reform Act to create enforceable penalties for the diversion of FEMA resources away from its statutory mission.

The Washington Post provides background information.

Administration Denies Disaster Aid Requests from Democratic-Led States

Energy and Environment News describes concern that Federal emergency management decisions are subject to political influence:

Trump on Friday rejected $227 million in aid requests from New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Rhode Island for help recovering from a major snowstorm in February. Two days earlier, Trump approved Federal Emergency Management Agency disaster aid for six Republican-led states, while extolling the political virtues of GOP politicians and candidates in the states.

A March 2026 article in Politico described how the administration has approved 89 percent of disaster aid requests from red states, but only 23 percent of requests from blue states.

NRDC Issues Climate Relocation Report

The Natural Resources Defense Council has published a report offering a framework for planned relocation in the U.S. in response to climate change. In this blog post, author Dr. Adelle Thomas notes:

…planned relocation offers an opportunity to reduce long-term risk, strengthen resilience, and advance equity. Drawing on more than 300 global case studies and examples from communities across the United States—such as Newtok, Alaska, and Isle de Jean Charles, Louisiana—NRDC’s new report identifies what works, what doesn’t, and what must change.  

Ultimately, the United States must shift from reactive disaster response to proactive, justice-centered planning. By learning from global best practices and addressing long-standing structural inequities, the United States can transform planned relocation from a last resort into a strategic, community-driven approach to managing climate risk. 

Legislative Update

Several bills related to coastal flood resilience are worth examining as the 119th Congress lurches to a close:

• WRDA2026: The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee has reported WRDA2026 legislation. This press release includes links to bill text and section-by section analysis. The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee has more information.

• FEMA Act: The House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee held a hearing on July 15 for further testimony on the Fixing Emergency Management for American’s Act (FEMA) in light of the recent recommendations on FEMA from the FEMA Review Council. This press release has more information.

• The NFIP Premium Transparency Act (H.R.9511): The bill would require that each NFIP policy declaration page would be required to display the property's full set of Risk Rating 2.0 rating factors, as well as applicable discounts, mitigation options, and claims history. The bill also mandates that FEMA launch an online flood insurance information tool that allows property owners to access detailed flood risk data with an interactive feature showing potential cost savings.

• The Commission on Natural Disaster Risk Management and Insurance (H.R.8439): The proposed commission would examine the risks posed to the United States (both nationally and to individual States, localities, tribes and other geographic areas) by natural disasters, and means for mitigating the risks and financial costs associated with losses.

HUD Proposes Rule to Revoke FFRMS

The Department of Housing and Urban Development has proposed a rule that would revoke the Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS). CFRP has strongly supported implementation of the FFRMS because of its many benefits for coastal resilience (see CFRP Policy Agenda). Comments are due September 8.

How to Better Account for Climate Risks in Housing Prices

This research paper, published in the journal Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, explains that climate risks are not fully priced in U.S. housing markets, noting that this mispricing can distort household decision-making and may incentivize development in high-risk areas, leading to sudden adjustments in home values and market instability. The authors explain:

…we review how policies that contribute toward more efficient pricing of climate risk can either support or hinder market stability and progressive distributional outcomes. We specifically focus on how three sets of state and federal policy levers—improving climate risk information, removing subsidies for development in high-risk areas, and increasing public investment in disaster risk reduction—can be implemented to reprice climate risk in housing markets following a gradual and transparent pathway, while protecting low-income households from adverse financial impacts..

Upper Limit Project Proposes New Metric for Sea Level Rise

The nonprofit organization Upper Limit is proposing a new metric to judge progress toward managing rising sea levels: “We need leadership to reshape this narrative by setting a clear Upper Limit to the rate of sea-level rise as a second metric to the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. An Upper Limit is a powerful, actionable metric, providing a dual approach to combating climate change and driving global urgency and action.”

Upper Limit also offers a newsletter.

Eight Reasons Land Use Planning is Not Being Used to Reduce Disaster Risk

This post on Substack from Andrew Rumach asks the question “Why Don't We Use Land Use Planning More Forcefully to Reduce Disaster Risk?” and then offers eight reasons that limit or constrain more effective use of land use tools, including the profit incentive for growth, fragmented local governments, lack of political support for disaster prevention, and zoning policies that promote low density, single family homes and suburban sprawl rather than “compact settlement patterns that would shrink or restrict our exposure.”  Extra credit for anyone wanting to follow-up with the interesting supporting articles cited for each reason.

State and Local

Wetlands Watch Issues Annual Report

CFRP partner organization Wetlands Watch, based in Norfolk, Virginia, has issued its annual report, including a summary of work on coastal resilience. Executive Director Mary-Carson Stiff noted that this is Wetland Watch’s 25th anniversary:

At 25 years, Wetlands Watch is the steward of a shared, rich, collaborative effort that will require broader reach, deeper technical capacity, and steadier public commitment in the years ahead. Virginia’s next phase of climate adaptation will depend on policies that anticipate rising water, planning tools that help communities act before disaster, and land-use decisions that give wetlands a fighting chance to survive while keeping people safe.

New Jersey Roadways at Risk of Flooding

This report from Rutgers University describes flood risks to roads and bridges across New Jersey, noting the high risk in southern coastal counties due to rising seas:

The southern coastal counties have the most roadways, hurricane evacuation routes, and bridges vulnerable to potential inundation in the three scenarios used in this analysis. These vulnerabilities continue to increase considerably in the potential miles and bridges inundated between the 2050 and 2100 scenarios suggesting that preparing for a projected 2 feet of sea level rise in 2050 alone may not be sufficient to prepare for the significant increase in permanent inundation that may be experienced 50 years later.

New York City: New Housing vs. Flood Avoidance

This article in The New York Times reports on the approval of a major new housing development on a part of the city coastline most exposed to hurricane storm surges. The New York City area is projected to lose more than 80,000 housing units to flooding in the next 15 years even as demand for housing remains high. Strong demand for new housing is overcoming caution about adding new homes to flood risk places.

The lure of waterfront development collides with a lack of citywide defenses that would protect residents from sea level rise and extreme rain, said Klaus Jacob, a geophysicist and professor emeritus at Columbia University. Until such a system is in place, he said, increasing density in flood plains “is a terrible idea.”

Charleston South Carolina Zoning Rewrite

The City of Charleston, South Carolina is making comprehensive revisions to its zoning code to, among other things, limit development in coastal flood areas. This article in the Charleston Post and Courier describes the effort, quoting city staff:

We want to be able to restrict development in areas that are subject to frequent flooding in the future,” Overcash said. “It makes sense in many areas to do this, and in many areas around the edges of the city where you have marsh and water, it’s low-density already.

Charleston City Coastal Storm Defenses: Costly, Ugly, and Unfair?

This article in the Charleston Post and Courier describes efforts by the City of Charleston to generate the $455 million needed to pay the local share of a proposed $1.3 billion costal defense project now being developed with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. A county tax on transportation scheduled for referendum in November could help cover costs, but some versions of the project design were considered and the current plan leaves some historically black neighborhoods unprotected.

California Considers Highway Coastal Flood Fixes

This article in Grist describes how the State of California is working to develop options for sea level rise flooding of highways, including in the San Francisco area. The proposed project would:

…remake portions of the 21-mile highway. It would replace one of five bridges with one 5 feet taller, raise two one-mile sections by up to 8 inches, add a carpool and bus lane in each direction, and restore a tidal marsh and other ecosystems. 

Not everyone thinks that goes far enough. Some want the highway moved several miles inland. Others favor a far more ambitious $10 billion project that would take at least 20 years. It would raise almost the entire roadway, add a lane for cyclists and pedestrians, and perhaps include railway tracks

New Orleans Relocation? Hold on a Minute

A recent research article calling for New Orleans to begin planning to relocate to higher ground continues to generate controversy. This article in The Guardian notes that there has been a strong negative reaction to any suggestion of relocation, but that some comments have been constructive, quoting a study author: “I’ve found it encouraging – we’ve had more constructive reactions than negative ones,” Törnqvist said. “Of course it’s upsetting to hear this, but cities like New Orleans have an expiration date. We’ve already crossed a tipping point of survivability for our coastal wetlands. The rate of sea level rise is way too high.

A related story from Inside Climate News highlights the potential social justice issues facing the city if it fails to engage a process to manage the inevitable relocation and quotes Jesse Keenan, a study co-author: “It’s super important for people to recognize that what we’re ultimately calling for in this paper is a public, private, and civic engagement with adaptation policy, planning and practice.”

This article in the New Orleans Lens, offers a local perspective on the need to engage the coastal resilience challenge with author Nicholas Lalla noting:

This reckoning will require New Orleanians to jettison the myths we have constructed about ourselves and our home. In the “City That Care Forgot,” we advertise that the good times can roll forever. Entrenched racial inequalities are masked by a public brand of libertine fun and rich, multi-cultural food. Jazz and the roar of parades muffle the alarm bells of a looming environmental crisis.

Florida Could Lead on Coastal Resilience

This report from the Florida Council of 100, titled Resilience Reimagined: Modern Policy and Innovation for a Stronger Florida, offers policy actions that Florida communities, businesses, and homeowners can take to reduce coastal flood risks, noting:

Florida has the opportunity to lead. By reforming its regulatory framework, modernizing its building code, and catalyzing resilience-focused innovation, the state can turn vulnerability into strength. With smart choices, Florida can demonstrate to the nation—and the world—that resilience is the foundation of long-term prosperity.

Delaware and Virginia Senators Seek Funds for Living Shorelines

This article in Inside Climate News describes how senators from Delaware and Maryland are seeking funds through the appropriations process to support a number of different living shoreline projects in their states. Christophe Tulou, Director of the Delaware Center for the Inland Bays, is quoted: “There’s just a broad swath of interest and a lot of interest in living shorelines, which is more natural and, we would argue, a more sustainable way of providing those kinds of protections compared to these hard structures of the past,” Tulou said. 

Virginia’s Jamestown at Risk of Rising Seas

This interesting reporting from the PBS News Hour describes the work underway to recover artifacts from the site of the early colonia Jamestown settlement before sea level rise flooding makes further recovery impractical.