October 16, 2026

Coastal Flood Resilience News

Twice a month, CFRP recaps the latest science, federal policy, and state and local news related to coastal flood resilience and sea level rise. Prior issues can be viewed on our website.

Science

Hurricane Isaias Breaks Out of El Niño Lull

Grist reviews the recent lack of major storms in the Atlantic this year due to low wind shear and dry air caused by El Niño, and describes how Hurricane Isaias overcame the limiting factors to become a Category 3 hurricane driving winds of over 100 mph and significant storm surge:

So why did Isaias finally break through in October? While it is indeed fighting wind shear in the Gulf, atmospheric conditions aren’t as bad for it as they are farther east. “It’s forming in one of the few places that a storm can occur in the Atlantic right now, because of the very strong El Niño that’s taking shape and imposing very strong vertical shear across the deep tropics,” McNoldy said. “The Gulf has a small window of opportunity for a storm to form, and it did.”

The AP reported on some of the same issues.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent Hits Near Record Low

On September 12 of this year, the extent of Arctic sea ice hit it annual low point of 1.78 million square miles. This article in Earth.com explains that, in addition to an acceleration of annual sea ice loss in the 2000s, the structure of the ice has changed. “Multiyear ice survives at least one summer melt season and can grow thicker over time. Much of that older ice has disappeared, leaving the Arctic increasingly dominated by thinner first-year ice. Younger ice is generally more vulnerable to warm temperatures, winds, and ocean conditions.”

New Nature-Based Insurance Improves Adaptation

A new study published in the journal Nature points to the benefits of nature-based solutions to climate impacts and the potential to link nature-based projects to improved forms of insurance.

Here, we outline five key frontiers in nature-based insurance: modeling nature and risks better in insurance industry models, accounting for nature’s benefits in the pricing of insurance, de-risking investments in nature, insuring damages to nature, and working with insurers to advance these practices.

We identify recommendations to accelerate innovation and uptake along these five frontiers. Nature-based insurance has the potential to reduce risks for people and nature, mobilize private finance for adaptation, provide essential funding for biodiversity conservation, and improve the affordability outlook for insurance.

This article in Inside Climate News provide background information.

AI Hurricane Prediction Imperfect

The growing use of artificial intelligence tools has improved forecasting of hurricane direction and strength but is still imperfect due to several factors including lack of open ocean data, the lack of regional, as opposed to global, data, and the errors related to “chaos.” This article in The Washington Post explains the issues.

Hurricanes More Intense But Not More Frequent

This editorial from The Washington Post makes a case that climate impacts are overstated by alleging that advocates for addressing climate change sometimes wrongly assert that Atlantic hurricanes are becoming more frequent, when in fact storms are simply becoming more intense.

Evidence suggests that increased water temperature raises the intensity of hurricanes, but the data indicates that man-made carbon emissions are not causing more-frequent hurricanes.

Consider what the nation’s top scientists have to say on the matter. In a 2024 summary of the work undertaken on the subject, Tom Knutson, senior scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, wrote, “There is no strong evidence of century-scale increasing trends in U.S. landfalling hurricanes or major hurricanes.”

This article by Jeff Masters explains why strong hurricanes are getting stronger.

Note that the CFRP has always been careful to distinguish between storm frequency and intensity in its white papers and letters.

Federal Policy

Hurricane Isaias Hits Florida Panhandle

The first major hurricane of the season came ashore near Destin, Florida, on October 9th after weakening from a Category 3 storm to Category 2. The New York Times provides a summary of storm conditions and impacts. In some good news: “Winds dragged water away from the shore in stretches of the area around Mobile, Ala. In Destin, the surge was measured at around four feet, despite initial forecasts of between six and nine feet.”

The risk analysis firm Cotality estimated insured loses in the range of $2-3 billion. Federal government losses are not yet estimated.

CBO Report Shows Flood Investments Save Money

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office finds that federal government invests in flood adaptations are more than outweighed by savings for taxpayers. CBO breaks down the 30-year savings as for every $1 billion spent in prevention in present-value terms:

• Future flood damage costs will decrease by $3 to $4 billion,

• Taxpayers will save $1.8 billion in disaster spending, and

• NFIP claims reduced by $300 million, mostly benefiting ratepayers through lower premiums.

This press release from Senator Jeff Merkley, expected to be the next chair or ranking member of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, provides background information and this statement:

Every year, billions of taxpayer dollars are spent cleaning up and restoring the damage caused by flood waters. From coastal towns to rural communities, climate change related events are exasperating federal resources that are allocated to help families rebuild from these costly disasters… 

Today, CBO confirms that a simple way for the federal government to be a better steward of taxpayer money, is to invest in flood adaptation methods—such as repairing local dams and levees or working to elevate high-risk properties. We owe it to the American people to make investments that will not only protect their property and surrounding community but also save lives.

Suncor v. Boulder Offers Possible Funds for Coastal Adaptation

The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. v. County Commissioners of Boulder County (Docket No. 25-170) on October 5, 2026. A decision in favor of Boulder would open a path for many similar suits against oil companies seeking damages and funds for adapting to climate change, including for building coastal flood resilience. This article in The Washington Post provides an overview of the case.

A key issue in the case is whether the Clean Air Act preempts state law that would allow injured parties to seek compensation. The preemption issue is explained in this SCOTUSblog post and addressed in this opinion piece in The Hill, authored by former EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy and EPA General Counsel Avi Garbow.

Flood Insurance Fails to Cover Significant Risk

An investigation by the AP found that the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) does not cover millions of properties facing flood risks and participation in the program is declining.

Nationwide, just 2.4% of properties are covered by 4.5 million federal flood insurance policies, an Associated Press analysis shows — but 8.4% are at severe or extreme risk of flooding. The gap illustrates the foundational flaws in a program that fails to balance affordability, flood protection and cost to taxpayers.

It’s getting worse. The count of policies is down roughly 500,000 in five years. Price increases are a big factor. This downward trend collides with the rising risk of flooding across many areas of the United States, driven by climate change that can strengthen hurricanes and worsen downpours far from the coasts.

Urban Ocean Lab Issues Report on Local Buyout Programs

Urban Ocean Lab has issued a report looking at how local and regional governments are designing voluntary floodplain buyout programs. The report “surfaces the open questions every program still has to answer: who gets left behind, what happens to the land, and how to know if a buyout is reaching the people who need it most.”

This is the first installment in Urban Ocean Lab’s series exploring how local governments are managing, funding, and improving buyout programs.

Insurance Group Cites Climate Risks to Economy

The insurance nonprofit Inside Track has published a report titled “Sounding the Alarm” raising concerns that governments are not alert to the climate risks that are likely to drive significant increases in property insurance rates and that these rate increases pose a risk to the wider economy.

We are worried that the risk levels we are seeing either aren’t being communicated to or aren’t being properly internalised by government. Without intervention these physical risks will translate into major economic risk. The undermining of the mortgage market drove the Global Financial Crisis – we are worried a major increase in uninsured, high -risk properties could manifest in a similar way as climate impacts intensify.

The report argues that growing climate risks mean that insurers have no choice but to reprice insurance, limit coverage, and in come cases stop offering coverage

Senate Bipartisan Permit Reform Bill Includes Coastal State Grant Program

The Senate bipartisan permit reform bill includes new authority for the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation Coastal State Fund (see section 1308; page 156) including authority to “award grants to coastal States to support State programs and activities intended to better understand and use coastal resources, coastal and natural infrastructure, and ecosystem services provided by natural systems.”

$50 million is authorized for each fiscal year 2028-2032.

State and Local

California Sea Level Rise of One-Half Foot This Year

This article in the New York Times describes the several factors combining to drive up sea levels along the California coast over the next year due to “an enormous pulse of wave energy generated by El Niño travels up the coast, lifting the water as it goes.” In addition to this “Kelvin wave” Pacific waters have been warm for months and a tidal cycle will be peaking soon.

“For us in California, really what causes overtopping and flooding are when waves arrive at high tide,” said Mark Merrifield, director of the Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, Calif.

With so many elements stacking on top of one another to increase ocean heights, it’s “highly probable” that California will soon witness its highest sea levels ever recorded, Dr. Merrifield said.

Southern California Ports Threatened by Rising Seas

The ports of Los Angles and Long Beach face a range of climate related risks, including rising sea levels, according to this report in Capitol and Main which explains:

…port officials plan to ramp up imports, and the port could see a rise in oil tanker traffic, increasing emissions and accelerating the changing climate’s enormous wildfires, persistent droughts and fatal heatwaves. Rising sea levels threaten the port’s most valuable assets: storage tanks for crude oil and refined fossil fuel — products that contribute to climate change. 

Note that sea level rise risks to transportation assets, including ports, are addressed in this CFRP White Paper.

North Carolina Roads and Homes Damaged by Minor Storms

This YouTube video explains how a small, unnamed coastal storm caused erosion and destroyed roadways along North Carolina’s Outer Banks in late September.

The same recent storms also destroyed additional homes along the Outer Banks. The video notes that homeowners are discouraged from removing structures to higher ground by FEMA loss coverage policies.

Virginia Publishes Coastal Resources Tools

The Virginia Institute of Marine Science (VIMS) at the University of William and Mary has published a Coastal Resources Tool that includes one map viewer and six dashboards.

The Virginia Coastal Viewer displays shoreline conditions throughout coastal Virginia. The Shoreline Inventory Dashboards display shoreline conditions and tidal marsh inventory by locality or river system. The Shoreline Management Model Dashboards provides best management practices for all of coastal Virginia. The MapMyShore Community Engagement dashboard displays shoreline feature data that was submitted using the MapMyShore app. The dashboard displays the data as points pending review by CCRM.

New Hampshire Seeks “Rising Tide” Photos

The New Hampshire Coastal Adaptation Workgroup is sponsoring a photo contest seeking photos the document the impacts of rising tides along the coast of the state including: “flooding, flood impacts, flood safety, flood mitigation, flood proofing, erosion, local landmarks, buildings, bridges, culverts, piers, seawalls, roadways, beaches, people, wildlife, salt marsh, rivers, and estuarine environments.”