November 2, 2026

Coastal Flood Resilience News

Twice a month, CFRP recaps the latest science, federal policy, and state and local news related to coastal flood resilience and sea level rise. Prior issues can be viewed on our website.

Science

US Glaciers Predicted to be Lost by 2100

Glaciers across the American west are melting at a rapid rate and researchers predict most will be gone by 2100. This article in The Guardian quoted an author of a new study:

“The sad conclusion is that we are seeing signs glacier change is accelerating and I’d say a lot of them will be gone by 2100,” Fountain said. “In the summertime they are melting more because it’s hotter and in winter they are getting rain instead of snow, which isn’t nourishing them. It’s a double whammy. There’s no good news on this.”

Although the study notes that the most immediate impacts of glacier loss are on alpine ecology, the gradual shift of glacial ice into the oceans is one of several contributors to rising sea levels. Melting of mountain glaciers causes between 25 and 30 percent of sea level rise, although the percentage will decrease over time as they disappear.

The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

Insufficient Mitigation Dooms 1.5C Target: United Nations

The new emissions gap report from the United Nations evaluating each nation’s commitments to reduce release of greenhouse gases finds that insufficient progress toward past national commitments has made the goal of keeping warming under 1.5 degrees C impossible, resulting in “overshoot” of that target and the future challenge of finding a “credible pathway to return to 1.5 degrees C by the end of the century”.

The chance to hold global warming to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels with no or limited overshoot is gone. The task is now to minimize overshoot and return to 1.5°C.

This New York Times article reports that, although the UN found a general failure to meet emissions reduction commitments, most countries made some progress in reducing emissions, with the US as a major exception.

Among the Group of 20 industrialized nations, the report noted, emissions overall had slowed down in 2025, “with the United States of America being the major exception.” That came after a year of rising electricity demand from the rapid construction of data centers to serve artificial intelligence, as well as a cold North American winter that prompted more fossil fuel use for heating.

Although the report does not speak directly to the consequences of additional warming for rising sea levels, the assessment of poor progress will inform coastal planners as they make decisions to select among different sea level rise scenarios in developing coastal flood resilience plans.

AI Aces Hurricane Track Predictions

Artificial intelligence is proving to be a reliable tool for predicting the path of hurricanes. This article from National Public Radio explains that AI more accurately predicted the path of Hurricane Isaias in early October than did conventional models.

"Google DeepMind, in particular, has really proven itself the last few years as the gold standard model," says Michael Lowry, a longtime meteorologist and hurricane expert in Miami, who has previously advised both the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

Thwaites Glacier Sea Level Rise Prediction Doubled

New research in the journal Nature Communications reports that the Thwaites Glacier in Antarctica is weakening faster than originally projected noting:

Extending this model forward, we show that grounding-zone processes govern glacier’s detachment from stabilizing seafloor ridges, enabling unpinning as early as 2038 and producing up to 30 ± 6 mm of global mean sea-level rise by 2100 - approximately double previous projections even without additional climate warming.

This article in Grist notes that the projected increase in sea level of 30 mm is small but significant:

That may not sound like much, but it doubles the projections made by previous models, according to the study. Thwaites contributes about 4 percent to sea level rise, which over the past three decades amounts to some 10 centimeters. That’s enough to have sent homes in North Carolina crashing into the sea, while forcing coastal communities in places like the Solomon Islands and Senegal to move to higher ground.

EL Niño Threats to East Coast

This article in Newsweek explains that, although El Niño conditions reduce hurricane risk on the east coast, they increase the risk of other storms, such as nor’easters.

While El Niño can disrupt the Atlantic hurricane season by increasing destructive wind shear that tears apart storms before they can form, it can contribute to more nor'easters during the winter months because of how it strengthens the southern jet stream, a National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Prediction Center meteorologist told Newsweek on Saturday.

NOAA Flood Inundation Mapping Expanded

NOAA has announced the expansion of it flood inundation mapping services to cover 100 percent of lower 48 states and parts of Alaska. The maps show river flooding impacts up to five days ahead of current conditions and are intended to help emergency managers move people out of areas expected to flood. The tool is focused on river flooding with emphasis on coastal flooding.

This article from the Association of State Floodplain Managers provides more information.

Federal Policy

FEMA Head Forecasts Lower State Assistance

The Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency is telling states and others to be prepared for reduced funding for disasters. This article in Politico quotes Director Cameron Hamilton:

“Every state must have the appropriate financial reserves” and other abilities “to ensure that recovery efforts can start immediately and not necessarily be held up simply because of the federal [disaster] declaration process,” Hamilton said, according to a recording of his remarks obtained by POLITICO.

“A future that I hope we would shoot for is one where we wouldn’t require as many disasters because the capability of states is so high and so substantial,” Hamilton added, referring to presidential authorizations of federal disaster aid.

In related news, a new report from Argonne National Labs and FEMA found that state disaster agencies “are typically understaffed and underfunded” and that many agencies are heavily dependent on federal funding.

NOAA Slashes Climate and Coastal Grants

The website Climate Proof reports that both the number and dollar value of NOAA’s grants for coastal resilience and other climate adaptation work are significantly lower than in past years.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has cut funding for new climate and coastal adaptation grants by 73% since fiscal 2024, data from non-profit Grant Witness shows.

The agency signed off on US$396.8mn in fiscal 2026 through September 25, compared to US$680mn the year prior and a whopping US$1.46bn in 2024, the last full fiscal year of the Biden administration. NOAA has awarded 122 climate resilience and coastal grants this fiscal year, down from 361 in fiscal 2024.

GAO Finds Very Low Flood Insurance Coverage

The Government Accountability Office evaluated whether homeowners in flood risk areas nationwide had federal flood insurance and found that many lacked coverage. The new report draws on data from First Street to identify homes in FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Areas (about 4 million homes) and in other high risk areas (about 13 million homes). In the case of homes in the Special Flood Hazard Areas, 43 percent lacked coverage while for all homes at risk, 86 percent lacked coverage.

GAO identified four actions that could help increase NFIP and private flood insurance coverage. Each would require statutory authority from Congress.

1. Incorporating all sources of flood risk into purchase requirement determinations could help ensure that more at-risk properties have coverage.

2. Making property-level flood risk information publicly available could increase awareness of flood risk.

3. Requiring lenders to provide flood insurance quotes for federally backed mortgages could better signal the need for coverage.

4. Increasing NFIP coverage limits could allow property owners to obtain coverage better aligned with potential flood losses.

Urban Ocean Lab Reports on Financing Infrastructure

Urban Ocean Lab has released a report titled “Building Resilience into Capital Projects: Early insights from the Puget Sound.” The report describes work in the Puget Sound region to develop guidelines for better integrating climate change impacts into capital planning, noting:

Through a process called capital planning, jurisdictions make critical decisions about what to build, repair, or replace. These decisions are often made without climate change in mind, putting infrastructure, services, and communities at risk—and the risks are no longer theoretical.

Surfrider Foundation Report on State of the Coast

Surfrider Foundation recently released its annual State of the Beach report focusing on issues arising from the use of emergency coastal protection structures. Surfrider examined state laws governing coastal shoreline projects built before or after an emergency and graded 90 percent as “C” or worse. This article from PRNewswire includes a quote from report author Emma Haydocy:

"When a forecast weather or tidal pattern is treated as an emergency, rock and concrete go onto the beach with little review or oversight, and too often they become permanent fixtures along our shores. States can fix this by defining emergencies more narrowly, enforcing laws that require temporary structures to actually be removed, and proactively planning for long-term coastal resilience. An emergency permit should buy time for meaningful adaptation — not become a poor substitute for it."

CFRP Releases White Paper on Coastal Social Infrastructure

Social infrastructure assets in coastal communities (e.g., schools, hospitals, places of worship, and government buildings), are increasingly at risk of flooding from storm surges and rising sea levels. A new white paper from the Coastal Flood Resilience Project outlines flood risks to these assets and recommends actions to reduce risks for both existing and new infrastructure.

State and Local

California Governor Signs Executive Order for Coast

This press release announces that a new Executive Order signed by Governor Gavin Newsom “to protect Highway 1 and the coastal communities, businesses, and jobs that depend on it as California prepares for potentially dangerous El Niño storms.”

The Order directs state agencies to prioritize preventive work before storms hit and to plan for the growing climate threats facing the highway beyond this storm season. It calls for creation of a Highway 1/Pacific Coast Highway Task Force, including development of a long range adaptation plan for the highway. This YouTube video provides commentary on the risks to the highway from an interested, non-governmental observer.

The new Order comes after the the governor declared a State of Emergency in September to help the state deal with challenges from the emerging El Niño season.

California Fifth Climate Assessment Released

The State of California has released a series of reports as part of it’s Fifth Climate Assessment, including a summary report providing the most recent assessment of climate risks. The report identifies over a dozen major “Key Messages” including one on rising sea levels:

With 3.3 feet of sea level rise $78 billion worth of property and 201,000 people could be exposed to coastal flooding by 2100. This means five times the exposure expected in 2050. A 100-year storm could raise these estimates to 310,000 people and $122 billion in property exposed by 2100.

The report includes a 10 page discussion of sea level rise projections, expected impacts, and response strategies.

LA Times Describes California Coastal Challenges

Roxanne Xia from the Los Angles Times describes the flood and erosion challenges that the California coast is now facing in this article. She reviews the warmer water, the Kelvin Wave, and a king tide all combining to drive today’s ocean water levels up while the state plans for an additional 3-4 feet of sea level rise by 2050.

Six California Coastal Areas at Risk of Flooding Now

A new report from the University of California at Davis describes six areas along the California coast likely to have flood issues in the winter of 2026-2027. Report authors observe in closing:

…making shorelines more resilient now will cost a fraction of emergency repair and replacement costs, will reduce harm to people and ecosystems, and could contribute to a “restoration” economy rather than an emergency response one.

San Clemente Debates Beach Nourishment Funding

Like other California coastal towns, San Clemente is coping with higher ocean levels driven by El Niño conditions are accelerating erosion already underway in response to rising sea levels. This article in The Guardian describes the debate over alternatives approaches to managing the shoreline, including a proposal for a 10 year sales tax to generate funds to match federal funding for beach nourishment. The article provides some historical perspective:

Much of California’s coastline development was completed during the state’s population boom from the 1940s to 1970s – years that happened to be an unusually “calm climate period” along the Pacific Ocean – “not many big El Niños, not a lot of storm damage”, Griggs, the coastline expert, said. “People built on the cliffs, they built on the bluffs, they built on the dunes.”

Since then, stronger El Niño seasons have returned – and this year threatens to be the worst on record.

Union of Concerned Scientists Calls on Congress for Climate Resilience Actions

This blog post by Shana Udvardy of the Union of Concerned Scientists describes the multiple risks to coastal communities along the California coast, and the range of local and state actions underway, and the recent proposals for reduced federal funding for emergency response, noting:

…we must advance a broader conversation with communities across the nation and demand action from the next Congress for a robust package of climate resilience provisions. And we must remember that even though not every state has the resources California does, federal support is crucial for all states, especially those lower resourced states.

California Reports on Climate Driven Migration

As part of its Fifth Climate Assessment, the State of California just published an interesting report assessing how climate change is driving human migration and displacement across the state. The report conclusion states in part:

The path forward demands a holistic, anticipatory approach: weaving migration management into climate adaptation, bridging silos across infrastructure and social systems, and democratizing decision-making to include those most impacted. California’s challenge is immense, but so too is its capacity to lead. By embracing “two-way integration”—reducing risks for those displaced while strengthening receiving communities—the state can transform climate-induced mobility into an opportunity to create stronger, safer, more inclusive and vibrant communities.

In short, climate-induced displacement and migration is not a peripheral issue. It is one of the defining challenges of California’s future.

Georgetown Climate Center Releases State Climate Policy Tracker Update

The Georgetown University Climate Center has released the first of a series of updates to it’s state climate adaptation policy tracker tool. The new updates focus on Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Center Director Joshua Saks stated:

“State and local governments across the country are responding to the growing danger storms, heat waves, floods, fire, and drought pose to people and communities…Our goal is to make sure our Tracker reflects the full scope of what’s happening out there today, and helps leaders learn from each other and match solutions to the challenges they are facing.”

South East Coast Flooding Without a Storm

This YouTube video shows recent flooding in south Florida as a result of a king tide, winds blowing water ashore, normal rainfall, and of course, sea level rise. The video notes that the porous limestone in south Florida allows seawater to evade conventional coastal protection structures, limiting adaptation options.

This video looks at significant king tide related flooding in other southeastern coastal areas, from Charleston to the Florida Keys.